"미국 원유 생산 줄여도 국제유가 안 오를 듯"
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글로벌 에너지 정보업체 플래츠의 유가 전망
OPEC 회원국인 사우디와 이란 간 정치적 긴장 고조는 OPEC 외부와의 협력은커녕 그 내부에서 감산 협의조차 어렵게 하고 있다. 경제제재에서 풀려난 이란 당국은 하루 100만배럴의 원유를 추가로 시장에 내놓고 있다. OPEC에서 두 번째로 많은 양의 원유를 생산하는 이라크는 생산량을 현재 수준보다 하루 20만~30만배럴 늘리고 싶어한다. 국제에너지기구(IEA)는 지난달 보고서에서 “뭔가 바뀌지 않는 이상 원유시장은 과잉공급에 잠길 수 있다”고 경고했다.OPEC은 월간리포트에서 “올해 비(非)OPEC 국가가 ‘설비투자비용(capex)’을 삭감하기 시작하면서 균형점을 다시 찾아나갈 것”이라고 좀 더 낙관적인 의견을 내놨다. 모든 프로젝트가 한계비용 이하인 캐나다와 북해, 남미, 그리고 아시아 일부 지역은 특히 취약하다고 밝혔다. 사우디 국영석유회사 아람코의 칼리드 알팔리 회장은 지난달 세계경제포럼에서 30달러 아래로 유가가 추락하는 것은 “비이성적”이라고 말했다. 그는 시장이 적정 수준보다 더 낮은 편에 있으며 소규모 생산업체들이 재정적인 어려움에 닥친 것을 고려할 때 필연적으로 반등할 것이라고 주장했다.
그러나 원유시장은 올해 첫 2주간 3조달러 이상을 증발시킨 중국의 제조업 약세와 국내총생산(GDP) 증가율 지표에 아직도 흔들리고 있다. 중국의 원유 수요는 올해 2.5% 증가할 것으로 예상된다. 지난해 5.8%보다 크게 줄어드는 수치다. 세계에서 석유 소비를 가장 많이 하는 미국은 석유 재고량의 무분별한 증가와 수요 감소로 시장의 부정적인 여론을 부추겼다. 지난달 22일 발표한 미국의 주간 원유재고량은 4억9492만배럴로, 역대 최고치였으며 1년 전보다 30% 높았다.
반다나 하리 < 수석애널리스트 >한국경제신문은 글로벌 에너지 정보제공업체 플래츠(Platts)의 에너지 관련 칼럼을 독점 게재합니다.
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<이하는 전문>OIL INSIGHT WITH PLATTS: Crude hits 12-year lows amid fears of growing glut
Singapore -- Imminent new supply from Iran and worries over a slowing China and its possible contagion effect sucked crude into a vortex right off the bat as trading began in 2016. Benchmark Brent futures brushed past 12-year lows below the $30/barrel mark in the third week of January, prompting some to call for a $10 bottom.
Towards the end of the month, statements from Russia that it was planning to meet with the Saudis and other OPEC members in February to discuss coordinated efforts to lower production shored up sentiment, pushing crude more than 20% above the month's low. But any upswing in a volatile market grappling with uncertainties risks being wiped out the next moment. That would be especially true in view of the complexities involved in an OPEC-non OPEC attempt to cooperate on an output cut.The recent rise in political tension between fellow OPEC members Saudi Arabia and Iran, combined with the fact that a sanctions-free Tehran is all geared up to bring up to 1 million b/d of additional crude into the market, makes an agreement within the producer group to rein in output seem extremely remote, let alone collaborating outside.
In fact, OPEC's second largest producer Iraq, which hit record high production in 2015, hopes to boost output by another 200-300,000 b/d above current levels to reach 4 million b/d this year.
Iran's oil ministry, meanwhile, activated its planned 500,000 b/d oil output increase January 17. If achieved, this volume would take Iranian output to around 3.39 million b/d and exports to 1.5 million b/d. The immediate impact on exports is expected to come from Iran's considerable floating storage, which holds 47-49 million barrels of crude and condensate, according to Platts cFlow data.
"Unless something changes, the oil market could drown in oversupply," the International Energy Agency warned in its January report, estimating an oversupply of 1.5 million b/d in the first half of 2016 if Iran adds 600,000 b/d by mid-year.
OPEC struck a more optimistic note in its monthly report, saying 2016 would see the start of the rebalancing process as deep capex cuts start to feed through to non-OPEC supply. Output in Canada -- where all projects are now below cash cost -- the North Sea, Latin America and some parts of Asia is particularly vulnerable, it said.
The collapse in oil prices to below $30 was "irrational," chairman of state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco told the World Economic Forum in Davos January 21, asserting that the market had overshot on the low side and would inevitably start turning up, given that many small producers were facing financial difficulties.
Days earlier, Saudi Arabia had flagged what many regarded as the unthinkable --- the potential sale of a part of Aramco, the Kingdom's crown jewel.
On the demand side, the average of latest forecasts by the IEA, OPEC and the US Energy Information Administration point to expectations of consumption growing by about 1.3 million b/d in 2016 versus last year, compared with an estimated 1.52 million b/d rise in 2015.
But the oil market may not be buying the growth story, still rattled by the spate of weak manufacturing and GDP growth data from China, which had wiped off more than $3 trillion from the global equity markets within the first two weeks of the year alone.
Beijing reported the slowest real GDP growth in 25 years in 2015 at 6.9%, but more worryingly for the producers of raw materials, China's energy intensity seems to be declining even more rapidly.
Oil demand in the world's second largest economy and also the second largest consumer is expected to rise by just about 2.5% from a year ago in 2016, according to Platts China Oil Analytics, compared with 5.8% growth in 2015.
In the US, the world's largest oil consumer, a relentless rise in oil stockpiles and contracting demand further fueled the market's negative sentiment. Commercial crude stocks in the US at 494.92 barrels in the week ended January 22 were the highest on record and nearly 30% above a year ago. Average four-week product demand, meanwhile, was down 1.7% on year.
With the oil price bottom still nowhere in sight, producers around the globe are hunkering down for prolonged pain. Oil-rich governments across the Middle East are slashing public spending, borrowing money, raising taxes, and removing subsidies. The Russian ruble hit historic lows against the US dollar in January, while Venezuela is predicted to suffer the worst recession on the globe in 2016. Continued blood-letting in the corporate world will see further job and upstream capex cuts at oil and gas producers and service providers.
So what gives? The world now waits for US production to cave in. The US EIA expects domestic output to decline by about 700,000 b/d this year to an average 8.7 million b/d, as current prices drive more shale producers out of business and bank loans start drying up. If true, 2016 will reverse the US' relentless production growth trend of the past eight years. But that may not suffice; the market can be expected to exact a much bigger price to rebalance.--Vandana Hari
Asia Editorial Director Platts and Research Scholar, McGraw-Hill Financial Global Institute