IMF "미·중 관세조치 여파…내년 세계 GDP 0.8％ 감소"(원문포함)
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"내달 새로운 세계 경제 전망 발표 예정"
게리 라이스 IMF 대변인은 12일(현지시간) 현지 언론과의 브리핑에서 "미국과 중국의 무역 갈등이 2007∼2008년 글로벌 금융위기 이후 처음으로 제조업 약화 조짐을 보이는 세계 경제에 영향을 미치기 시작했다"며 "2020년에 글로벌 GDP 수준이 잠재적으로 0.8 % 감소해 향후 몇 년 동안 추가 손실이 발생할 수 있다"고 말했다.이 같은 예측은 IMF가 '미·중 무역전쟁이 내년도 글로벌 GDP의 0.5%를 떨어뜨릴 것'이라고 예측했던 올해 초부터 부정적인 수준이다. 라이스 대변인은 "미·중 무역전쟁 등으로 인한 영향이 이제 감지되고 있다"며 "무역전쟁은 위협적일 뿐만 아니라 세계 경제를 짓누르기 시작했다"고 우려했다.
IMF가 글로벌 경기 침체를 예상하느냐는 질문에 그는 "현재 IMF의 기준에는 해당하지 않는다"라면서 "이르면 오는 10월 새로운 세계 경제 전망과 관련해 곧 새로운 수치를 내놓을 것이다"라고 밝혔다.
한편 IMF는 지난 9일 공개한 보고서를 통해 무역정책 불확실성 지수가 지난해 미국과 중국의 무역전쟁이 격화하면서 10배 증가했다고 밝혔다.
QUESTIONER: I just wanted to ask you about the global economy and theglobal trade situation. I don't know if you touched on this before.
MR. RICE: No. QUESTIONER: You know, in the past, you've said that the global trade doesseem to be shrinking. We've now had additional tariffs take affect startingboth in China and the United States. Have you done an additional sort ofreassessment given the different tariff levels that were, you know, youforecast had said if these tariffs that were promised at 25 percent comein. The Trump administration has now said they will do somewhat shy of 25percent plus more than 25 percent in other cases. Have you reassessed thatat all and looked at the forecast for the overall economy and what kind ofpercentage of GDP that will affect?
MR. RICE: On the overall economy, we will be coming with some new numbersquite soon in the context of the new World Economic Outlook. I talked aboutthat a little bit just at the beginning to the meeting. So, that will be inOctober, not very far away.
What I can say today and what we've said recently is that the pace ofglobal economic activity remains subdued. And indeed, that the rising tradeand geopolitical tensions, of course, have increased uncertainty taking atoll on business confidence, investment and global trade. We have said and maybe trying to answer your question a bit more directly,we have said in the past that trade tensions are a threat. I think what weare saying today is that they are not only a threat but are actually nowbeginning to weigh down the dynamism in the global economy. And again,we'll have new numbers, revisions to the global outlook coming a bit later.But you may have seen recent statements in the last week or so even by ourchief economist Gita Gopinath who has addressed, talked about these issues.
Our latest estimate is that on regarding the U.S. China tariffs, includingthose implemented and announced, could potentially reduce the level ofglobal GDP by 0.8 percent in 2020 with additional losses in future years.And again, Gita, when she spoke, you know, went into this in a bit moredetail. And again, we will have further analysis on this in the WorldEconomic Outlook.
You may also have seen this week, we published a trade index which was ameasurement of the level of uncertainty in global trade. If you haven'tseen that it's worth taking a look.
QUESTIONER: Yeah. Just to follow up on that.
MR. RICE: Sure.
QUESTIONER: So, the 0.8 percent change is tariffs that are already in placeor those that are also threatened. Is it both? MR. RICE: Those implemented and announced.
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